BUDGET 2008 - MY TAKE

Finance Budget 2008 was the one to watch out for; I was very enthusiastically waiting for the FM to present the budget. All this enthusiasm was not because I wanted to see the FM presenting a budget, but it was to see what good is he planning to do for the common man and how is he going to do the same, if at all he does some.
In the words of Mr. Ramachandar, advisor to the central government (I am not very sure whose advisor is he exactly (PM or some other top Minister), so I have mentioned to the centre) “this was a typical Chidambaram’s budget, a Managers Budget”. He calls this budget as a Managers budget, for the way Chidambaram has taken care of each and every aspect of the economy according to him.
Before I take I stand on this budget’s issues, I think it would be fair enough to express my thoughts of what I expected from this budget.
1. Most important agenda on an average Indians mind – Farmer. Yes I wished that in this budget our FM creates policies and measures for the betterment of our farmers as a long term solution or at least an initiative in terms of their well being or should I say addressing areas which are creating most of the problems for the farmers.
2. Infrastructure, yes that’s the second thing which I feel requires a lot of attention at this point of time in Indian economy. Everything is doing good, industries, services, etc, but if we are lagging behind in other areas it is just because we do not have appropriate infrastructure in place to support or develop those areas for example agriculture, it requires good infrastructure to actually make sense for the agrarian population of the country.
3. Medical and health related aspects – in India even now there are thousands of districts which do not have a regular doctor/hospital, which is something very basic for every district to have. So I expect I good amount of resources are allocated for health purposes in different ways and initiatives through the Budget.
4. Last on my list but the most important one – Education. India has almost one school in everyone Kilometer on average except a few areas in Bihar and Rajasthan, which is something to be applauded. But the sad story is that we do not have teachers in these schools, we do not have these schools in proper conditions. The point is we do not have the appropriate infrastructure in place; we do not have appropriate skilled people for the job. So if the FM could allocate good amount of money to eradicate these deficiencies, it would take our country a long way.

Before I go on to comment of the final verdict of the budget, I would like to mention that I was very much involved in to discussions before and after the budget with lot of people officially and unofficially for instance I was live on CNBC for a survey which they were running to know about what people feel the budget would be like, and I was also live on TV for a show aired by NDTV Profit called India’s Budget, where I was one among the audience discussing the budget with the top businessmen of the country. I have mentioned the above facts just to assure you that I was really very serious about this budget and the expectations which I have mentioned above are not just things which I fancy, but those are the most important issues our country needs to get addressed as soon as possible. And these are not things which are not possible, or to say not possible for this budget. If that is the case it is not possible for any other budget as well.
My verdict on CNBC TV was that “this is going to be a populist budget, keeping in mind the framers deaths at Vidharbha and other places, and the elections coming up at the centre and state level”. My comment was basically assuming it to be an election year budget, but still I had hopes that the FM will do some thing much higher than my expectations.

The budget was presented with a lot of enthusiasm and pride by the FM, as he has given the opportunity to the people to spend more and consume more; he says according to economics it is very important to increase consumption to keep the economy healthy. He has given the farmers (rich) a bumper offer to get a life time chance to get their loans waived with certain conditions applied. He has increased the tax slabs; he has reduced the duties etc, for several products. And he has also done a lot of good things here and there. He has also allocated funds for education, health and infrastructure but how much and in what way is that going to be spent. Is it done with a long term vision, with plans for long term sustainability?
I would say he could have given a budget which was lot better, even if he was concerned about votes for the elections coming soon. He is an elected representative of people in the Parliament and he needs to have done things which could have made life of people better on a long term basis and not just with the eyes on the soon coming elections.

At first I felt it was an excellent budget, but as I tried to analyze it and discuss it I started finding issues which haven’t been addressed, but could have been addressed. Mr. Chidambaram has presented 5 consecutive budgets and I would say good budgets but what I felt was lacking in all his budget’s was an outlook for long term sustainability. Policies for developing the areas which need high attention and priority. For instance our FM must be feeling proud enough to have provided a loan waiver of 60000 crores, but I don’t understand how a loan waiver of such a huge amount help any farmer, either for short term or long term. This is a loss which the farmer has already faced and which he is trying to cope up with or come out of. But does giving a loan waiver of such a huge amount make any sense for him to even continue his livelihood; he is still concerned and worried about his livelihood, his occupation and other things. Not to comment on how the waiver will be disbursed, while farmers from the worst hit place in the country like Vidharbha feel that almost none of them is getting even a single paisa benefit from such a huge amount of waiver. Then my question is where is all this money going to, and mind you I have not yet asked where this money is going to come from.

The maximum loans a farmer takes comes from the local money lender and not from banks, the maximum trouble faced with regard to all sects of farmers is by the farmers with lesser land (this is my assumption, I know its bad enough). But the benefits of the loan waiver is going to those farmers who have land more than certain specifications (I am not going into the details), and to those farmers who have loans from banks (I need not mention, but a huge amount of data is available for the characteristics of farmers loan and where does it mostly come from i.e. banks or money lenders). No one is able to understand this policy of loan waiver; I think it is clear only to our FM and his team. And talking about long term initiatives, there are various ways in which he could have spent this huge chunk of 60000 crores to actually help the farmer, if not for today at least for a better tomorrow (by today and tomorrow I mean, if not short term at least in the long term). And when I hear people saying that he did it just because he wanted to help the farmers over come the current liquidity crunch and suicidal tendencies, I think I need not repeat the comments and feelings of Farmers of the worst hit place and with highest number of suicides – Vidharbha. More over if such a liquidity crunch is to be addressed by a policy like this one, I believe tomorrow if some other industry fails, our FM would also give them a huge waiver to help them come over their losses, and to help stop suicides if any. I sometimes laugh at things, because I am not able to understand the implications and ideologies behind such great policies.
One question which I would also like to ask here is – what is the incentive for the farmer who paid his loan installments in spite of all the troubles he also faced which his counterparts faced but did not pay the loans. Will they again like to pay any other installment after all what did he/she get, just hopes and nothing more. He could have also abstained from paying the loan installment thinking that the government will be so nice to him and waive his loan. I think this would become one issue in this process of loan waivers.
I have read a lot of other alternative uses of this amount and I personally also had a few good suggestions for the amount which was “wasted” as loan waivers, but what’s the use, our FM feels that waving loans is the best alternative available.
I had dreamt of a budget which would make an AAM AADMI actually smile with pride that his brothers in the villages will also be able to develop as others, but thanks to such great policies and schemes which thankfully help the Aam Aadmi to have such dreams as dreams and not take them away from him.
I pray to the almighty that at least the government succeeds in its objective to win the elections and again provide such great policies which hampers development and creates negative feeling about the whole system of lending and borrowing. I think at least the farmers who are getting the waiver would be happy as they are able to get a good deal for not paying up their loans.
Anyways I am planning to shift to a badly hurt village and also to become a farmer there. My plan of action is to buy a piece of land (according to the specification of the present loan waiver) with money borrowed from a bank near by and would wait for the government to waive it off!!!!!. Then lets meet once the waiver is declared, till then see ya and yes don’t forget to consume more, because that is what our FM wants you to do.

(P.S – These are my thoughts and you can always beg to differ on the same. I have used a lot of Data’s and Facts based on my own assumptions and discretion as an AAM AADMI. I am sorry if some particular point or issue is wrong as a fact or judgment, please do let me know if u find any such instance in the whole article. And I would definitely appreciate your comments and feelings on the above issues, as only ideas and discussions help to understand things better. Jai Hind. )